Media Tenor U.S. Election Tracker: Fewer than Ten Actually Qualify for Debate

U.S. TV news, January 1, 2015 – August 2, 2015

New York, August 5, 2015. Only a few Republicans have managed to qualify for the first Republican debate. This is true not just based on Fox News’s metrics, but also based on research institute Media Tenor’s application of agenda setting theory. Anyone who wants to win an election in a democracy needs to be able to attract the media’s attention and contribute to the political debate. However, in the Republican nomination race, so far it looks as if candidates are assessing whether they are qualified to run based largely on their ability to raise funds. But, despite this perception, November 8, 2016 is all about votes, not dollars, and news media visibility is a key component of election day performance, says Racheline Maltese, a researcher at Media Tenor.

Eight years ago, Giuliani was briefly framed as the candidate to beat according to polls and pundits. But as early as 2007 Media Tenor noted that the former New York mayor would be unable to claim the Republican nomination if he remained focused on his impressive fundraising performance while ignoring that news content – not advertising – decides the relevancy of a candidate. While Giuliani ran successfully in the media until October 2007, he lost visibility atthe end of the year. In January 2008 he was a protagonist in less than 5% of all reports on GOP candidates. The rest is history.

Where do we stand in 2015?

Like extremists such as Le Pen in France, Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, and billionaire Christoph Blocher in Switzerland, Trump has taken advantage of the chronically negative media frame on foreigners. As long as 50% of all reports on foreigners are connected with real or presumed criminal acts, there is fertile ground for enthusiasm for politicians with extreme views to take hold.

“Trump’s visibility is accelerating,” says Maltese, “but he is facing high levels of criticism, especially on Fox News. Policy issues have had little visibility as the media focuses on the horse race,” she adds, noting that Marco Rubio’s image is most tied to policy issues at present despite low volume. “Meanwhile, the media is really focused on Bush and Walker as the serious, establishment candidates.” Media Tenor also found that the media has become more critical of all the candidates as time has gone on.

This research examined all 26,304 reports on U.S. TV news, January 1, 2015 – August 2, 2015.

For over 20 years Media Tenor’s mission has been to contribute to objective, diverse and newsworthy media content by bringing together the diverse parties. Media Tenor’s global research projects include analyses of election campaigns, investor relations, public diplomacy, corporate communications and other topics critical to news makers and news audiences. For more information, please contact Racheline Maltese at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or +1 212-935-0210.