Davos 2016: Conflicts and Fragmentation on the Rise

Demographic Change and Geopolitical Environment Highlight Need for Smart Alliances

January 20, 2016. Davos. – The next ten years hold an equal potential for smart alliances and for conflict, according to the Global Agenda Index, new research from Media Tenor International presented today at the World Economic Forum. With aging demographics in the West, the refugee crisis, and a number of major conflicts around the world, rifts between traditional and liberal societies as well as experience and youth are emerging, the institute says.

“There is a clear lack of trust in politicians and political parties according to our latest GAI survey,” says Roland Schatz, founder and CEO of Media Tenor. “This underscores our findings that traditional spheres of power have been eroding. This leads us to two possible outcomes – smart alliances in which groups, businesses, and individuals with the skills to address inherent global risks step forward or confrontation. which may lead to a severe power vacuum.”

At Media Tenor’s Reputation Lab at the World Economic Forum, Dr. Markus Veit, pointed out that aging, technology, urbanization, and globalization are all key agents for change. “Most people identify as rational” in the face of these challenges, he said, “but that does not mean all decisions are made in a rational way. We must understand how people behave and why.”

J.D. Bindenagel, former U.S. Ambassador and professor at University Bonn, said that in general governments can handle one or two very serious issues at a time, but the current state of the world presents them with seven or eight. “There are conflicting interests, and it’s a highly emotional situation.”

Prof. Dr. Thomas Druyen, Director of the Institute for Future Management at Sigmund Freud University agreed. “We are facing a period of greater emotionality,” he said, adding that fear can be a significant driver of decision making in the current climate.

Prof. Dr. Andreas Kruse of University Heidelberg noted that we throw away too much human capital in society. “Intergenerational exchange can be key. We can put together refugees and older people in order to stimulate each other,” he said, adding that this can help integration.

HSH Prince Michael of Liechtenstein and founder and CEO of GLS Geo Strategic Advice said that sanctions against Russia regarding the Ukraine actually increased Putin’s popularity. “Information needs to be put into context,” he emphasized, noting that journalists need to do more than just write what they think people want to read.

Partnering with the UNAI, Media Tenor's Global Agenda Index 2016 provides a scientific perspective mapping and evaluating global issues and responses that matter beyond nationally based conceptions. The Global Agenda Index 2016 includes input from experts like Roland Schatz, founder and CEO of Media Tenor International and Alfred Berkeley III, Chairman of Princeton Capital Management and former President of NSADAQ.

This research looks at all 1,966,735 reports on international TV news, January 1, 2012 - December 31, 2015 and all 344,571 reports in opinion-leading business media. For over 20 years Media Tenor's mission has been to contribute to objective, diverse, and newsworthy media content by bringing together the diverse parties. Media Tenor's global research projects include analyses of election campaigns, investor relations, public diplomacy, corporate communications and other topics critical to news makers and news audiences.

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