Media favor Cruz, Sanders as primaries move forward

U.S. TV & print news, January 1, 2015 – January 31, 2016

New York, February 2, 2016. Media coverage, not polls, has been a key factor in the strong performances of Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders in the Iowa caucuses, according to new research from Media Tenor International.

“Polling data will eventually follow the media result, but the media leads,” says Racheline Maltese, a researcher at Media Tenor. “Increasing visibility for Cruz over the past year, along with a positive tone, has helped catapult him to victory in Iowa. This will lead to more positive coverage that will put him in a strong position going into New Hampshire. Trump’s campaign, meanwhile, is wounded as media will be highly critical that it failed to deliver on expectations."

Media tone was also a predictor in the tight Democratic contest, but Sanders now has the advantage, Media Tenor has found. “The gap between Clinton and Sanders has been narrowing, but Clinton was supposed to achieve an easy win. Now that Sanders taking the nomination will be framed as a reasonable possibility by the media, coverage volume and positivity is likely to improve, putting Clinton at serious risk.”

Bush’s poor performance highlights the negative impact of his lack of understanding of the importance of media agenda setting while instead focusing on traditional advertising-focused campaigning. The Washington Post reported that many caucus goers were not sure if he was related to past presidents. Additionally, many questioned what he stood for on policy issues. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/02/02/is-jeb-bush-related-to-george-w-bush-and-other-things-people-still-didnt-know-on-day-of-iowa-caucuses/)

The current evolution of the candidates' images harks about to the media trends around Dean and Kerry in 2004. Similarly, Giuliani’s devastating Florida loss in 2008 also highlighted this trend – candidates who are off the media agenda, eventually find themselves out of the election (see pages 11 -13).

This research examined all 38,920 reports on political figures on three U.S. TV news programs and in eight opinion-leading print publications, January 1, 2015 – January 31, 2015 and all reports in Media Tenor’s campaign analysis database dating back to 2000.

For over 20 years Media Tenor’s mission has been to contribute to objective, diverse and newsworthy media content by bringing together the diverse parties. Media Tenor’s global research projects include analyses of election campaigns, investor relations, public diplomacy, corporate communications and other topics critical to news makers and news audiences.

For more information, please contact Racheline Maltese at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or +1 212-935-0210.