Media agenda, not money driving nomination races

U.S. TV & print news, January 1, 2015 – February 18, 2016

New York, February 21, 2016. With the Republican primary in South Carolina, the race has narrowed to a battle between Trump and Cruz thanks to strong media focus on their candidacies according to new research from Media Tenor International.

“Trump has maintained his lead in visibility but other candidates in both parties are catching up,” says Racheline Maltese, a researcher at Media Tenor. “Cruz now has a better tone than Trump suggesting a strengthening position, especially in light of Antonin Scalia’s death and his experience clerking for Chief Justice William Rehnquist and arguing before the Supreme Court. Additionally, Rubio will need to do more than pick up Bush’s supporters now that he’s out of the race; Rubio will need to boost his media visibility.”

Bush’s departure from the race highlights the negative impact of his lack of understanding of the importance of media agenda setting while instead focusing on traditional advertising-focused campaigning. Major media also took issue with former president George W. Bush campaigning for Jeb Bush, saying that it made him look weak, and also linking him with unpopular wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. In USA Today J.D. Vance argued that Trump speaks for voters who feel betrayed by Bush’s support for his brother’s presidency and alienated by the extreme wealth dynastic political families such as the Bushes often represent (http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/02/18/donald-trump-white-working-class-rust-belt-voters-elections-2016-column/80422422/).

Meanwhile, Michael Bloomberg’s announcement that he was considering entering the presidential race resulted in a spike in coverage above his general awareness levels, suggesting that the media takes his candidacy seriously and is willing to include him on the media agenda, should he commit to the race. Bloomberg is already associated with several key issues including gun rights and regulation and education.

Media tone in the Democratic contest has remained consistent with Hillary Clinton unable to address the media agenda challenge coming from Sanders’s growing media visibility. While she was able to take the Nevada caucus, Sanders is now close to pulling even with Clinton’s  media visibility and may pose a significant challenge in South Carolina, Media Tenor has found. “Clinton is at serious risk, despite primary season moving towards the South where she traditionally has stronger support,” says Maltese. “Sanders’s increased visibility and ongoing risks for Clinton from the email scandal may represent too many small wounds to her image for her to overcome.”

This research examined all 43,523 reports on political figures on three U.S. TV news programs and in eight opinion-leading print publications, January 1, 2015 – February 18, 2016.

For over 20 years Media Tenor’s mission has been to contribute to objective, diverse and newsworthy media content by bringing together the diverse parties. Media Tenor’s global research projects include analyses of election campaigns, investor relations, public diplomacy, corporate communications and other topics critical to news makers and news audiences.

For more information, please contact Racheline Maltese at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or +1 212-935-0210.